As predicted in October 2008 Google announced yesterday that they were bringing out a new operating system for laptops/netbooks etc. As previously thought, Chrome is going to be at the heart of the system, in fact I suspect - other than speed, simplicity and security - the operating system is actually going to only play a "supporting role" in powering the browser to do its job.
This brings Google into the "stack owning society". Microsoft own the stack from Windows to Internet Explorer, Apple own OS X to Safari (not to mention the hardware) and of course Sun had Solaris & Java. Finally Oracle was also building its own stack (and now owns Sun's to boot).
So actually the prediction that Google would go this way was perhaps not the greatest prophesy! Of course, they haven't necessarily got exactly the same blocks, but it would seem the key ones converging are the o/s and browser (though don't rule out hardware just yet).
So firstly how will Google differ from Microsoft? Well the paradigm is different. Microsofts "eco-system" is around fat (ok "rich") client software on top of its fat operating system. Google on the other hand has its eco-system firmly in the cloud. The operating system isn't (YET) the destination, but a departure lounge for the web based applications rendered by Chrome.
It is unlikely that Google will Kill Microsoft with its new o/s, in fact potentially its o/s is likely to be quite complementary (though i'm sure google will not admit it), but what it will do - perhaps not immediately - is start to erode the monopoly of Microsoft.
Googles new operating system may well be perfect for netbooks. Windows 7 isn't going to get close to the speed I suspect google will deliver to the netbook. My guess (having used windows 7 on a laptop and xp on a netbook) is that windows 7 on a netbook will be comparable with Windows XP. But that is still slow!
If googles operating system is as good - and as fast - as Chrome, then I think we could see netbooks migrating towards Google. In addition I suspect Googles o/s will be free versus Microsofts chargeable windows and when applied to low cost netbooks, you will see that users will have more than one reason to choose google.
Given the power of the netbooks and their reduced screen/keyboard you won't necessarily want to use it for much more than browsing. However, as Microsoft well knows, the power will increase and as users get aclimatised to Google O/S and 3rd parties start developing for it, the eco-system will develop and potentially spill over into laptops and pc's. This is Microsofts greatest fear.
Microsoft is vunerable. Vista was a disaster. They got "disrupted" by the netbook and had to resurrect XP for the netbooks and focus on putting windows 7 (Vista 1.1) on an atkins diet to stand any chance of creating an upgrade path for XP. But they are still "disrupted", a fat-os isn't actually right for netbooks and also, given the price-point, the monetisation model is also wrong.
Add to this that Microsoft's Internet Explore has nose-dived to about 40% usage a (second place to Firefox) and you have to conclude that Microsoft is not dead but wounded in the key "Platform" space. The platform is where the war is being fought. The O/S runs the hardware, and the Browser increasingly is the Application Engine.
Time now to predict ACT 2: Larry Strikes Back.
The reall author of this drama of course is Larry Ellison who tried to do what Google are doing about 14 years ago. It wasn't called the netbook or chrome then, but in 1995, he brought out the "network computer", a scaled down computer for the network centric world (read cloud/web). Of course, he was ahead of his time and it failed. But now is the time, and what he tried to do then, is becoming a reality now, except not lead by Oracle, but by Google.
However, Larry is not one to be left out of anything. He has the cash and - with the Sun acquistion - quite a bit of the technology to launch a 2nd front against Microsoft. In the previous "Microsoft Monopolistic Paradigm" it would be crazy for yet another o/s and browser to be fighting out the crumbs left by Microsoft. But things have moved on. Microsoft doesn't have the monopoly on the browser, and could quite easily be squeezed out of the growing netbook market leaving Google and Oracle to have a 3-way fight (i'm assuming here Apple remain fixed on the high value "up market" space).
Now Oracle have the capability to build the kit (e.g. SUN) as well as build on top of the kit (Solaris and Java). Given that this was always close to Larry's heart and that he loves Microsoft just as much as well Google, I think it won't be long before he announces his OracleTop. Where he may decide to do one "upmanship" is that he will add one more item to the stack. Whereas Google and Microsoft have to work with 3rd party generic hardware, Oracle could build their solution from the ground up e.g. build it from hardware to browser - just like Apple.
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